Bitcoin (BTC) may be over seven times higher than at its last halving, but if history repeats, that number could grow another 300% and more.
As tracked by on-chain data source Ecoinometrics this month, BTC/USD has the potential to eclipse estimates simply by following historical precedent.
Bitcoin: Compared to 2017, you ain’t seen nothing yet
Bitcoin currently trades 7.3 times its price since the halving in May 2020. If the last halving cycle is anything to go by, however, price action will not stop until it is 30 times higher.
The data relates to the roughly four-year halving cycles in which Bitcoin has exhibited identical behavior since its inception.
The current cycle, despite impatience from some traders, remains closely tied to the previous two.
Taking 2017 as an example, the next BTC price peak could be as much as $253,800 — and even then, Bitcoin would still be acting within previously defined parameters.
Ecoinometrics also includes data on Ether (ETH) and its performance relative to the stage of Bitcoin’s halving cycle.
The largest altcoin saw much larger comparative gains relative to Bitcoin — 120 times its halving price marked last cycle’s peak in 2018.
Thus, a repeat performance would mean ETH/USD trading at $22,300 — again not beyond the realms of possibility.
In terms of what the subsequent bear market could bring, Bitcoin would need to bottom out at around $42,000 to copy its post-2017 correction. ETH’s price, on the other hand, would fall to $1,347.
1 BTC = 1 BTC
If such sky-high figures are difficult to comprehend, they pale in comparison to what well-known data analyst Willy Woo now believes.
In a tweet this week, Woo reiterated that this Bitcoin halving cycle would be unique in one specific way: It will end in things being priced in BTC, not United States dollars, as using anything to measure BTC value will be pointless.
“What’s my prediction for the top of this cycle? Since I think this is the last cycle, the one that takes us to saturation, which if it wins, we can’t put a USD value on it because things get valued in BTC,” he wrote.
“Thus the cycle top is easy to pick. It will be 1 BTC = 1 BTC.”
A separate post noted how close Bitcoin was getting by market capitalization compared to U.S. dollar M2 supply. The situation in the next five years — the remainder of the current cycle and start of the next — he commented, will be “very interesting.”